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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220227155625.5EBCC1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2022 15:56:25 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 271556
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Near gale force N winds are=20
forecast to increase to gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
this evening and last through early Tue morning with seas=20
building to 15 ft over the area. Near gale force N winds will=20
then continue Tue through Thu night. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;=
!!DZ3fjg!roFXaPXmcZKrvMRZX8pZfMNoQ0qFX8J3SL5dfpMvKCESJnW5W4wLosvyodzVv16ZpX=
-zuwVC$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near
06N77W to 06N95W. The ITCZ continues from 06N95W to 07N120W, then
continues W of a surface trough from 07N123W to 06N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N
between 112W and 123W. This is more due to an upper-level trough
rather than due to the proximity of the ITCZ. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted from 05N to 10N between 127W and 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A 1029 mb high pressure is centered near 33N126W. Fresh to strong
NW winds are occurring in the southern and central Gulf of
California, to the south of Tiburon Island, while fresh NW winds
are over the N Gulf. Moderate N winds are west of Baja=20
California. Fresh N winds are likely occurring near Cabo
Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere, except for
strong to near gale force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Seas are 5-7 ft in the southern two-thirds of the Gulf of
California, and 3-4 ft N of Tiburon Island. Seas are 5-6 ft west
of Baja California. Seas are 3-6 ft elsewhere, except 7-9 ft in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds over the southern=20
two-thirds of the Gulf of California will continue through
tonight before gradually diminishing Mon into Mon night. Seas of
6-7 will continue S of Tiburon Island through tonight. Moderate=20
to locally fresh N winds and modest seas will prevail west of=20
Baja California, to the south of El Rosario, through today. Long
period NW swell will reach the waters west of Baja California=20
tonight, where seas of 7-8 ft will prevail offshore through Mon=20
night, before subsiding Tue. Looking ahead, winds and seas will=20
increase offshore Baja California Norte by Thu as a cold front=20
approaches the region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE gap winds are currently occurring over the region=20
offshore Papagayo. Moderate to fresh N winds are over the Gulf=20
of Panama N of 04N. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-6=20
ft in the Papagayo region and 4-6 ft south of the Gulf of Panama.
Seas of 3-4 ft are occurring elsewhere, except 4-5 offshore=20
Guatemala and El Salvador due to swell from the gap events=20
occurring in Tehuantepec and Papagayo.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to=20
pulse each night this week across the Papagayo region. Fresh
winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night
through Tue night. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1029 mb high pressure is centered near 33N126W. Gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail north of 27N and west of 125W due to a
ridge axis that extends west-southwestward from the high
pressure. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure=20
along the ITCZ is producing fresh to locally strong trades from=20
the ITCZ to 23N between 118W-140W. Seas are 8-11 ft in this area.
Significant NW swell is occurring west of 120W and north of 10N.=20
Even the gentle wind area north of 27N is experiencing seas of=20
8-10 ft. Seas are 6-8 ft elsewhere east of 120W, and west of 120W
south of 07N. A sharp upper-level trough extends from 27N129W to
06N133W. Upper-level diffluence to the east of the upper-trough=20
is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection from 06N to=20
14N between 112W and 123W. Strong winds with occasional gusts to=20
gale force are possible in the strong convection.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the
northern part of the region, maintaining fresh to locally strong
trades across much of the area from the ITCZ to 21N, and west of
117W through tonight. Long period NW swell will continue to
spread over most of the area through early Mon, keeping 8-11 ft=20
seas north of 05N and west 120W through at least Mon. Expect
enhanced showers and thunderstorms to continue through Tue from
the ITCZ to 15N between 120W-125W. Looking ahead, a cold front=20
is forecast to enter the area, passing SE of 30N140W around the=20
middle of next week.

$$
Hagen


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