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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220227182045.855751C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2022 18:20:45 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/271800Z-281800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271351ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261951ZFEB2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 27FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 989 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 271500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 26FEB22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.2S 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 262100) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.4S 91.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 15P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 126.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 126.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 117 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). CONDITIONS FOR REINTENSIFICATION ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW-
MODERATE (10-20KTS) VWS, DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IF TC 15S TRACKS INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN.
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT TC 15S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST AND POSSIBLY
REMERGE OVER WATER AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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