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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220227194729.7C3761C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2022 19:47:29 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 271909
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 89.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/28 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 87.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 100

24H: 2022/02/28 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100

36H: 2022/03/01 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/03/01 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/02 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 250 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2022/03/02 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 230 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 230 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85

120H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, VERNON LOW LEVELCIRCULATION REMAINED
LARGELY EXPOSED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ONLY ON
THE LATEST IMAGES. THE SYSTEM IS STILL SUFFERING FROM THE COMBINED
EFFECT OF THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR (20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS) AND
THE INTERACTION (FUJIWARA) WITH SYSTEM 8. THIS EVENING ASCAT PASSES
SHOW HOWEVER THAT THE WINDS ARE STILL ABOVE 35KT ON A LARGE PART OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED AT 40KT.

GIVEN THE LAST OBSERVATIONS, IT SEEMS THAT THE SYSTEM 8 IS IN ITS
FINAL WEAKENING PHASE BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY VERNON CIRCULATION.
THIS SCENARIO IS CONSEQUENTLY LARGELY FAVOURED.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FORECAST REMAINS SUBJECT TO THE FUJIWHARA
EFFECT WITH THE 08 SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
VERNON IS GUIDED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS IN MID-TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER
SOUTH. THIS TRACK WILL MAINTAIN DURING THE FOLLOWING DAYS LEADING
VERNON TO GAIN THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM
THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN. THERE IS A GOOD DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST EVEN IF WE NOTE AN EAST-WEST SPREAD,
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DIVERGENCES IN TERMS OF TIMING (GFS IS FASTER).
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A GLOBAL CONSENSUS.

AT SHORT RAGE, THE INTERACTION WITH SYSTEM 8, SHEAR AND THE WEAK
OCEANIC POTENTIAL BECAUSE OF THE SELF INDUCED COOLING OF UNDERNEATH
WATERS WILL LIKELY LIMIT VERNON INTENSITY. BUT GRADUALLY FROM
TOMORROW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION AND A NEW PEAK IN THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. THEN THE NORTH-WESTERLY ERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR IN  MID-TROPOSPHERE ARE LIKELY TO PREVENT FROM
A CONTINUATION OF THE DEEPENING. LATER THIS WEEK, WHEN THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES SOUTH OF THE TROPICS OVER INSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS,
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE TO BEGIN THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

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