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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220227213241.6BEF11C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2022 21:32:41 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 272124
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Near gale force N winds are=20
forecast to increase to gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
this evening and last through early Tue morning with seas=20
building to 14-15 ft over the area. Strong to near gale force N=20
winds will then continue Tue through Thu night. Please read the=20
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFE=
P2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uyWy6PzzwrgeZzz4slPD2HgedT7HUApql3kbVUQZSyTIXUXCZr3PQgU=
FsI_psxMoFSICO05L$  for more
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near
07N77W to 07N90W to 06N96W. The ITCZ continues from 06N96W to
05N107W to 07N121W, then continues W of a surface trough from=20
07N124W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 06N to 15N between 112W and 124W. This is more due
to an upper-level trough rather than due to the proximity of the
ITCZ. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 05N to=20
10N between 130W and 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A 1031 mb high pressure is centered near 32N127W. Recent ASCAT=20
satellite wind data show strong NW winds covering the southern=20
two-thirds of the Gulf of California, to the south of Tiburon=20
Island, while fresh NW winds are likely occurring over the N=20
Gulf. Gentle to moderate N winds are west of Baja California.=20
Moderate N winds are likely occurring near Cabo Corrientes. Light
to gentle winds are noted elsewhere, except for near gale force=20
N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 5-7 ft in the=20
southern two-thirds of the Gulf of California, and 3-5 ft N of=20
Tiburon Island. Seas are 5-7 ft west of Baja California, as=20
moderate NW swell approaches from the west. Seas are 3-6 ft=20
elsewhere, except 7-9 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds over the southern=20
two-thirds of the Gulf of California will continue through
tonight before gradually diminishing Mon into Mon night. Seas of
6-7 ft will continue S of Tiburon Island through tonight.=20
Moderate N winds will prevail west of Baja California through=20
Mon. Long period NW swell will reach the waters west of Baja=20
California this evening, where seas of 7-8 ft will prevail=20
offshore through Mon night, before subsiding Tue. Light to gentle
winds are expected everywhere Tue through Wed night, with the=20
exception of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, winds and=20
seas will increase offshore Baja California late this week as a=20
cold front approaches the region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE gap winds are currently occurring over the region=20
offshore Papagayo. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama.
Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-6 ft in the Papagayo=20
region and 4-5 ft south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft=20
are occurring elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to=20
pulse each night this week across the Papagayo region. Fresh
winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night
through Tue night. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. Seas will
increase to 6-9 ft early Mon and persist into Tue over the waters
offshore Guatemala due to N swell from a gap wind event in the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1031 mb high pressure is centered near 32N127W. Gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds prevail north of 27N near the high
pressure. The gradient between the high pressure and lower=20
pressure along the ITCZ is producing fresh to locally strong=20
trades from the ITCZ to 22N between 118W-140W. Seas are 8-11 ft=20
in this area. Seas of 8-11 ft are also occurring within the
gentle to moderate wind area farther north, due to significant=20
NW swell, which covers the area north of 10N and west of 118W.
Seas are 6-8 ft are elsewhere east of 118W, and west of 118W=20
south of 07N. A sharp upper-level trough extends from 30N128W to
05N135W. Upper-level diffluence to the east of the upper-trough=20
is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
from 06N to 15N between 112W and 124W. Strong wind gusts are=20
possible in the strong convection.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the
northern part of the region, maintaining fresh to locally strong
trades across much of the area from the ITCZ to 21N, and west of
117W through tonight. Long period NW swell will continue to
spread over most of the area through early Mon, keeping 8-11 ft=20
seas north of 05N and west 120W through at least Mon. Expect
enhanced showers and thunderstorms to continue through Tue from
the ITCZ to 15N between 120W-125W. A cold front is forecast to=20
enter the area, passing SE of 30N140W by late Tue. The front will
extend from 30N135W to 28N140W early Wed, and from 30N127W to
26N140W by early Thu. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are
forecast behind the front.

$$
Hagen


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