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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220228005326.DBC2E1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2022 00:53:26 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 280033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 87.6 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/28 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/01 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 305 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 75

36H: 2022/03/01 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 445 SW: 390 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

48H: 2022/03/02 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 535 SW: 400 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 445 SW: 360 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 400 SW: 270 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 285 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2022/03/05 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE INNER CIRCULATIONS OF VERNON AND
SYSTEM HAVE STARTED TO MERGE AS SHOWN BY 2222Z SSMIS PASS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY RESUMED CLOSE TO THE CENTER BUT THERE IS STILL NOT MANY
SIGNS OF CURVATURE. INTENSITY IS DOWNGRADED TO 35KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, WITH THE LIKELTY END OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT
SHORTLY, VERNON SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRIVEN BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IN MID-TROPOSPHERE
WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS TRACK WILL MAINTAIN
DURING THE FOLLOWING DAYS LEADING VERNON TO GAIN THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WHILE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE
BASIN. THERE IS A GOOD DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST EVEN IF
WE NOTE AN EAST-WEST SPREAD, ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DIVERGENCES IN
TERMS OF TIMING (GFS IS FASTER). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A
GLOBAL CONSENSUS.

FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST TOO, THE END OF THE FUJIWARA SHOULD MEAN
THAT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD START OVER. INDEED GRADUALLY
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE (LESS
SHEAR) AND A NEW PEAK IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
THEN THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSIONS IN
MID-TROPOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO PREVENT FROM ANY FURTHER DEEPENING
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. LATER THIS WEEK, WHEN THE SYSTEM EVOLVES SOUTH OF
THE TROPICS OVER INSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

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