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Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
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307 
WWPS21 NFFN 280000 CCA
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 280113 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTRE TD09F [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.2S
166.2E AT 272100UTC. TD09F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 

CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES OVER A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.   

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE.

*********************************************************************
***************
 
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.


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