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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220228065944.1A4B91C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2022 06:59:44 +0000
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ABPW10 PGTW 280800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/280800ZFEB2022-010600ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.3S 165.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.7S 167.2E, APPROXIMATELY 55
NM NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 280526Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). IN ADDITION, DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION TO
INCLUDE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN


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