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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220228072017.25F961C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2022 07:20:16 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 280628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 87.7 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/28 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 350 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 85

24H: 2022/03/01 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 435 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 100

36H: 2022/03/01 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 500 SW: 315 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

48H: 2022/03/02 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 480 SW: 285 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85

60H: 2022/03/02 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 465 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/03 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 455 SW: 270 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/04 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 455 SW: 230 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 140

120H: 2022/03/05 06 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

SINCE THE LAST FORECAST, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM VERNON AND THE SYSTEM 8 HAS BEEN COMPLETED, AS SHOWN
IN THE LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. THE CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSIVELY
ORGANIZED ITSELF DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER
LOCATED NOT FAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY. THIS
SHIFT IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR, OF THE ORDER OF 20/25 KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS
DATA. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO COOLED DOWN AND WE CAN SEE ON THE LAST
VISIBLE IMAGES A CURVATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS CLEARLY
INCREASED DURING THE LAST HOUR, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE SECONDARY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, PROGRESSIVELY LINKING TO THE CDO. THE ESTIMATION
OF THE INTENSITY, AS WELL AS THE UPDATE OF THE WIND EXTENSIONS COULD
BE DONE THANKS TO THE TOTAL PASS OF THE 0330Z ASCAT-B, WHICH DEPICTS
40 KT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS ESTIMATE
IS ALSO CORROBORATED BY THE LATEST 0009Z SMAP DATA  WHICH ALSO SHOWS
42KT. IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA, THE VERNON INTERNAL
STRUCTURE COULD NOT BE ESTIMATED, BUT CONSIDERING THE IMPROVEMENTS
VISIBLE ON THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
INDEED STARTED ITS CONSOLIDATION / INTENSIFICATION PHASE.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, THE FUJIWARA EFFECT HAVING ENDED, VERNON
SHOULD NOW TAKE A CLEARER DIRECTION SOUTH-WESTWARDS, GUIDED BY THE
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS ALOFT WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM
AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH
TENDS TO SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARDS DURING THE WEEK. THIS TRACK
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TAKING VERNON INTO THE
SUBTROPICS LATITUDES BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN.

THERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK, EVEN IF THERE IS STILL A
SIGNIFICANT EAST-WEST DISPERSION AND DISCREPANCIES IN TERMS OF TIMING
OF NUMERICAL MODELS (GFS STILL BEING FASTER). THE OFFICIAL CMRS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AFTER CHAOTIC BEGINNINGS DUE TO THE FUJIWARA
EFFECT, VERNON WILL START AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE, WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE A BIT MORE CONDUCIVE DESPITE
THE PERSISTENCE OF AN EASTERLY CONSTRAINT. DURING ITS SOUTH-WESTWARDS
SHIFT, VERNON COULD AGAIN VERY TEMPORARILY REGAIN THE STAGE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BEFORE A NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
BECOMES CRITICAL FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE INTENSIFICATION FROM
THURSDAY. MOREOVER, FROM FRIDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
INSUFFICIENT WITH INSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS; THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD VERNON TO START AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

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