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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220228073859.2D9971C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2022 07:38:59 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 280738
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Feb 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is surging
down eastern Mexico behind a cold front north of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region. This high pressure combined with lower
pressures south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is resulting in a
tight pressure gradient over the area. Gale force northerly=20
winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and are forecast=20
to peak around 40 kt until around sunrise, and again late=20
tonight into early Tue. Seas will peak around 12 to 13 ft during
the strongest winds. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale=20
force by late Tue morning with fresh to strong northerly winds=20
continuing through the end of the week. Please read the latest=20
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at=20
website https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.=
shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oIPi6HHUHlSgIl36IggG_yApqop92gjYElvCIheqHlO7sSjbRbbvNFiK43=
9zX-_Xfeum6I2j$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 05N90W
to 06N99W. The ITCZ extends from 06N99W to 08N120W to 06N140W.=20
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between
115W and 132W, and from 10N to 13N between 112W and 114W. Similar
convection is noted from 11N to 21N between 113W and 123W which=20
is mostly due to an upper-level trough rather than due to the=20
proximity of the ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

High pressure is centered northwest of the area. This high
combined with troughing across the NW part of Mexico, including
the Baja California Peninsula, is supporting fresh to strong NW
winds across most of the Gulf of California, spilling out of the
entrance. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, highest in the central and southern
Gulf of California. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail=20
elsewhere north of 18N and west of 105W across the offshore=20
waters of Mexico, along with 5 to 7 ft seas in NW swell. Light to
gentle variable winds prevail east of 105W and west of the Gulf=20
of Tehuantepec region, along with 4 to 6 ft seas mainly in NW=20
swell.

For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to=20
strong NW winds over the southern two-thirds of the Gulf of=20
California will continue through the rest of the pre-dawn hours=20
before gradually diminishing through tonight. Long period NW=20
swell will reach the waters west of Baja California this morning.
Another set of NW swell is forecast to arrive across the same=20
area towards the end of the week. Moderate or weaker winds are=20
forecast elsewhere through Thu. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds will
develop west of Baja California by the end of the week as high=20
pressure builds behind a dying cold front, locally strong north=20
of Punta Eugenia.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE offshore winds are currently across the Gulf
of Papagayo region along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama and near the tip
of the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate N-NE winds are noted offshore
of northern Ecuador to 250 nm. Mainly light to gentle winds are=20
noted elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to=20
pulse each night this week across the Papagayo region. Fresh=20
winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night=20
through Tue, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night, then=20
moderate thereafter. Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas=20
will build to 6 to 9 ft by early Mon and persist into Tue over=20
the waters offshore Guatemala due to N swell from a gap wind=20
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is noted north of the area. A surface trough is
noted just north of the ITCZ from 11N120W to 17N118W. Associated
convection is described above. Mainly moderate to fresh trades=20
are noted north of the ITCZ to about 24N and west of 120W, with=20
the pressure gradient between the troughing and ridging in place.
Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere across the open waters,=20
except gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds north of 28N=20
between 128W and 134W near the high center north of the area.
A large area of seas of 8 ft or greater in NW swell covers the=20
waters north of roughly 04N and west of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft=20
mainly NW swell elsewhere west of 115W, and 4 to 6 ft east of
115W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the
northern part of the region, maintaining fresh to locally strong
trades across much of the area from the ITCZ to around 22N, and=20
west of 117W through early today. Long period NW swell will=20
continue to spread over most of the area through early today,=20
keeping 8 to 11 ft seas north of 05N and west 120W through at=20
least Mon. Expect enhanced showers and thunderstorms to continue=20
through Tue from the ITCZ to 15N between 120W and 125W. A cold=20
front is forecast to enter the area, passing southeast of 30N140W
by late Tue. The front will extend from 30N135W to 28N140W early
Wed, and from 30N127W to 26N140W by early Thu. Fresh to locally=20
strong N to NE winds are forecast behind the front, along with=20
reinforcing NW swell up to 12 ft near 30N140W by Tue. By the end=20
of the week, low pressure west of the area may extend a warm=20
front across 140W with fresh to strong easterly winds north of it
in the northwest corner of our area, along with building seas in
SW swell.

$$
Lewitsky


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