Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220228120352.DBA6C1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2022 12:03:52 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1646049836-112669-7730"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1646049836-112669-7730
Content-Type: text/plain


980 
AWIO20 FMEE 281201

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/02/28 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO20 009/07 and WTIO30 009/07 issued at 06UTC on Moderate Tropical Storm VERNON.

Next warnings at 12UTC

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The monsoon flow is present over most of the basin and feeds a monsoon trough (MT) oriented towards 13S. The convective activity is focused on the equatorial part of the TM. Within this TM, no closed circulation is currently detectable except the presence of tropical storm VERNON. No threat to the inhabited lands is envisaged for the next 5 days.

Moderate Tropical Storm VERNON :

Position at 09UTC: 14.02oS / 87.5oE

Movement : South-West 7 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 45 kt

Estimated pressure at the center : 995 hPa

For more information on this system, refer to bulletins WTIO21 and WTIO31 issued at 06UTC and following.

Over the western part of the basin :

Driven by large-scale waves, the monsoon trough is expected to strengthen south of Agalega during the next week. The strengthening of the convergence on the equatorial side should promote the establishment of a circulation zone within the TM and define in the longer term (more than 7 days) a risk of cyclogenesis. At present, no numerical model envisages a significant risk in this window over the next 5 days

There is no risk of a moderate tropical storm forming over the basin in the next 5 days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


------------=_1646049836-112669-7730
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1646049836-112669-7730--