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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220228130247.AC3911C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2022 13:02:47 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 281300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 87.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/01 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 400 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 100

24H: 2022/03/01 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 480 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 140

36H: 2022/03/02 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 530 SW: 325 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 490 SW: 325 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85

60H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 465 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85

72H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 425 SW: 280 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 27.9 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SW: 260 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 175

120H: 2022/03/05 12 UTC: 31.0 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, UNDER THE STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR, THE VERNON CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED SHEARED, ALTHOUGH THE
STRUCTURE HAS TEMPORARILY ADOPTED A CURVED BAND PATTERN SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STRUGGLING TO FULLY ENTER THE CDO AND
REMAINS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF IT. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS CDO HAS SLIGHTLY FLUCTUATED IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE REMAINED COLD WITH AN IMPORTANT
ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY WHICH INDICATES AN ORGANIZATION THAT IS TRYING TO
SET UP. THE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE WAS NOT POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LACK OF MICROWAVE DATA. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY INCREASED GIVEN THE OBSERVED GAIN IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION
AND THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.


LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY. VERNON IS HEADING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, GUIDED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH TENDS TO
SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THIS TRACK WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TAKING VERNON INTO THE SUBTROPICS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE AVOIDING THE INHABITED AREAS OF THE BASIN.

THERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK, EVEN IF THERE IS STILL A
SIGNIFICANT EAST-WEST DISPERSION AND DISCREPANCIES IN TERMS OF ALONG
TRACK (GFS IS STILL FASTER THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL). THE OFFICIAL
CMRS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON HAS STARTED AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE
THANKS TO CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ( STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AT THE MARGIN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL) OFFSET BY THE
PERSISTENCE OF A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL
CONSTRAINT. DURING ITS SOUTH-WESTERLY MOVEMENT, VERNON COULD AGAIN
VERY TEMPORARILY REACH THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, BEFORE A NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS ALOFT BECOMES INHIBITING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE
INTENSIFICATION, FROM THURSDAY. MOREOVER, FROM FRIDAY, THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE DRASTICALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF VERNON ON
COLDER WATERS; THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD VERNON TO
START PROGRESSIVELY AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

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