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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220228153515.71A6D1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2022 15:35:15 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Feb 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is surging
down eastern Mexico behind a cold front north of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region. This high pressure combined with lower
pressures south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is resulting in a
tight pressure gradient over the area. Gale force northerly=20
winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and are forecast=20
to continue through early Tue. Seas will peak around 14 to 15 ft
during the strongest winds. After winds diminish below gale force
late Tue morning, strong northerly winds will continue through
the end of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;=
!!DZ3fjg!vsXMPmbeImVlvAlqkQt25yBsV-8z4o0HgYtI67iMh7ZySqqB0w8VD9uRGUf9sq4NLA=
BzzEYk$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near 07N78W
to 05N82W to 06N94W. The ITCZ extends from 06N94W to 07N130W to=20
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N=20
between 117W and 137W. Similar convection is noted from 11N to
20N between 115W and 127W, which is mostly due to an upper-level
trough rather than due to the proximity of the ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

High pressure is centered northwest of the area. The earlier
fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California have now
diminished to fresh. Seas are 3-4 ft over the northern Gulf and
4-6 ft over the southern and central Gulf of California. Mainly=20
gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 18N and west=20
of 105W across the offshore waters of Mexico, along with 5 to 7=20
ft seas in NW swell, except up to 8 ft off Baja California Norte.
Light to gentle variable winds prevail east of 105W and west of=20
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, along with 4 to 6 ft seas mainly=20
in NW swell.

For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh NW=20
winds over the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate this
evening and to gentle on Tue. Long period NW swell west of Baja=20
California will continue through today before subsiding late
tonight into Tue. Another set of NW swell is forecast to arrive=20
across the same area towards the end of the week. Fresh NW-N
winds will develop west of Baja California by the end of the=20
week as high pressure builds behind a dying cold front, locally=20
strong north of Punta Eugenia. Moderate or weaker winds are=20
forecast elsewhere through Thu.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong NE offshore winds are currently across=20
the Gulf of Papagayo region along with 5 to 6 ft seas. Moderate=20
northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate NE=20
winds are noted offshore of northern Ecuador to 250 nm. Seas of
5-8 ft in northerly swell are occurring well offshore western=20
Guatemala due to a gap wind event occurring in the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere,=20
along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to=20
pulse each night this week across the Papagayo region. Fresh=20
winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night=20
through Tue, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night, then=20
moderate thereafter. Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas=20
of 6 to 9 ft will persist into Tue over the waters offshore=20
Guatemala due to N swell from the gap wind event in the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1030 mb high pressure is located just north of the area near
33N128W. A surface trough is noted just north of the ITCZ from=20
15N117W to 11N120W. Associated convection is described above.
Fresh trades are noted north of the ITCZ to about 23N and west=20
of 120W, with the pressure gradient between the troughing and=20
ridging in place. Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere across the=20
open waters, except gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds north=20
of 27N between 128W and 134W near the high center north of the=20
area. A large area of seas of 8-11 ft in NW swell covers the=20
waters north of roughly 02N and west of 118W, with 5 to 7 ft in=20
mainly NW swell elsewhere west of 105W, and 4 to 6 ft east of=20
105W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the
northern part of the region, maintaining fresh trades across=20
much of the area from the ITCZ to around 22N, and west of 117W=20
through tonight, with winds diminishing over the area Tue into
Wed. Long period NW swell will continue to spread over most of=20
the area through today, keeping 8 to 11 ft seas north of 05N and
west 120W through today. Expect enhanced showers and
thunderstorms to continue through Tue from the ITCZ to 20N
between 120W and 130W. A cold front is forecast to enter the=20
area, passing southeast of 30N140W by late Tue. The front will=20
extend from 30N135W to 28N140W early Wed, and from 30N127W to=20
26N140W by early Thu. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are=20
forecast behind the front, along with reinforcing NW swell up to=20
12 ft near 30N140W by Tue. By the end of the week, low pressure=20
west of the area may extend a warm front across 140W with fresh=20
to strong easterly winds north of it in the northwest corner of=20
our area, along with building seas in SW swell.

$$
Hagen


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