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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220228180104.258561C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2022 18:01:04 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/281800ZFEB2022-011800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZFEB2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 86.9E, APPROXIMATELY 944 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 281500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 15S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 126.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 125.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 191 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WYNDHAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD
OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND. A
281356Z ASCAT B PASS REVEALS MOSTLY 15 KNOT WINDS OFF SHORE WITH
SOME 20-25 KNOT WINDS EAST OF THE LLC IN KING SOUND. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25TKT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IF 15S TRACKS
OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 15S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA
BEFORE EMERGING OVER WATER AROUND TAU 24.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.4S 109.9E, APPROXIMATELY 247 NM EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281358Z ASCAT B
PASS DEPICT A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WINDS
OF 15 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IS SLOWLY TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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