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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220228183210.729AC1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2022 18:32:10 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 281810
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 87.0 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/01 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 110

24H: 2022/03/01 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 75

36H: 2022/03/02 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 480 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

48H: 2022/03/02 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 490 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

60H: 2022/03/03 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 455 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

72H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 445 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 140

120H: 2022/03/05 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE VERNON CLOUD PATTERN HAS WARMED UP AND
THE CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE MOVED BACK UNDER THE MOST MARKED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS LOCATION IS HOWEVER NOT VERY PRECISE, THE LAST ASCAT
SWATH OF 1629UTC AT THE EDGE OF THE SWATH AND THE SSMI PASS OF
1244UTC ARE NOT VERY INFORMATIVE ABOUT THE LOCATION. THE CDO
CONFIGURATION IS MAINTAINED DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN EAST-NORTHEAST
SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE CIMSS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, VERNON MAINTAINS
ITS ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT 45KT, THUS PRESENTING A STATIONARY PHASE
THAT COULD LAST A LITTLE LESS THAN 24 HOURS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK. VERNON IS MOVING IN A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION, GUIDED BY THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE THAT ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH,
WHICH IS TENDING TO SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK.
THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VENRON TO
REACH THE SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING
THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN. SOME GUIDELINES PROPOSE A TRACK
SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE WEST DURING THE PERIOD OF THE
ANALISYS TIMES, REFLECTING A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT CHRONOLOGY OF THE
DYNAMICS OF ALTITUDE MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT OF THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED TO THE EAST. THIS TENDENCY IS NOT FOLLOWED FOR
THE MOMENT BY THE RSMC OF THE REUNION, WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO A
GLOBAL CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDELINES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON CONTINUES A TIMID INTENSIFICATION PHASE
UNDER THE COUNTERBALANCING EFFECT OF THE PERSISTENCE OF A MODERATE TO
STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT (ACCORDING TO CIMSS
ANALYSES) AND OF A SET OF SATISFACTORY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(MARKED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE MARGIN OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
POTENTIAL). DURING ITS GLOBAL SOUTH-WESTERN MOVEMENT, VERNON SHOULD
AGAIN TEMPORARILY REACH THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, BEFORE A NORTH-WESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSIONS
OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE CONTRIBUTES TO THE REGULAR
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM FROM THURSDAY. MOREOVER, FROM FRIDAY, THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE DRASTICALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
VERNON ON COLDER WATERS; THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD
VERNON TO BEGIN A PROGRESSIVE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

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