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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220301005914.8BFEF1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 00:59:14 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 010057
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 87.1 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/01 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 465 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/02 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 530 SW: 315 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 480 SW: 305 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 465 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 465 SW: 250 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

72H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 240 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/05 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SW: 270 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 150

120H: 2022/03/06 00 UTC: 32.6 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SW: 295 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE VERNON CLOUD PATTERN HAS COOLED DOWN
AGAIN LEAVING A MORE MARKED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN BEFORE WITH A
CENTER REMAINING A BIT MORE UNDER THIS AREA. THE 1939UTC MICROWAVE
PASS ALLOWED A BETTER LOCALIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER PLACING IT
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE AREA OF A STRONG WIND SHEAR GRADIENT (GLOBALLY FROM NORTH)
ANALYZED BY THE CIMSS. THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM VERNON REMAINS IN
A STATIONARY CONTEXT IN INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF ABOUT 45KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK. VERNON GRADUALLY TAKES A
SOUTH-WESTERN DIRECTION, GUIDED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE THAT ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS TENDING TO
SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THIS TRACK WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VENRON TO REACH THE
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN. THE TENDENCY OF SOME GUIDELINES TO
PROPOSE A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK SEEMS TO BE FADING. THIS
JUSTIFIES MAINTAINING THE PREVIOUS RSMC FORECAST WITH, HOWEVER, A
SLIGHT SLOWDOWN, ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE RANGE.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY: AFTER A STATIONARY PHASE IN
INTENSITY, VERNON WILL BEGIN A PHASE OF TIMID INTENSIFICATION UNDER
THE COUNTERBALANCING EFFECT OF THE PERSISTENCE OF A MODERATE TO
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT (ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSES) AND OF A
SET OF SATISFACTORY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (MARKED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AT THE MARGIN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL). DURING ITS
GLOBAL SOUTH-WESTERN MOVEMENT, VERNON SHOULD AGAIN TEMPORARILY REACH
THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BEFORE A
NORTH-WESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE CONTRIBUTES TO THE REGULAR WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
FROM THURSDAY. MOREOVER, FROM FRIDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD
DECREASE DRASTICALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF VERNON ON COLDER WATERS; THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD VERNON TO BEGIN A PROGRESSIVE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

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