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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220301022910.8B6861C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 02:29:10 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 010227
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is surging
down eastern Mexico behind a cold front north of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region. This high pressure combined with lower
pressures south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is resulting in a
tight pressure gradient over the area. Gale force northerly=20
winds are forecast to continue through Tue morning. Seas around=20
13 to 15 ft will peak through this evening. After winds diminish
below gale force Tue afternoon, strong northerly winds will=20
continue through the end of the week. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;=
!!DZ3fjg!sZ4eLvR3WBcKjDrPSuBxb4cFupHLEGN6XAVqhUQtpD68oGQ9DS0TLupKu3NONvipFR=
K7fu_i$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near 07N78W
to 08N87W to 03N106W. The ITCZ extends from 06N108W to 07N117W,
then resumes west of a surface trough from 10N124W to 07N140W.=20
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
07N to 12N between 117W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted elsewhere from 04N to 16N between 120W and 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

High pressure is centered northwest of the area. Moderate to fresh
NW winds are over the Gulf of California with seas 3-5 ft.=20
Gentle NW winds prevail off Baja California. Seas west of Baja=20
California are 6 to 8 ft in W to NW swell. Light to gentle winds
and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere west of the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec region.

For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh NW=20
winds over the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate=20
tonight and to gentle on Tue. Long period NW swell west of Baja=20
California will subside late tonight into Tue. Another set of NW=20
swell is forecast to arrive across the same area towards the end=20
of the week. Fresh to locally strong NW-N winds will develop west
of Baja California by the end of the week as high pressure=20
builds behind a dying cold front, with fresh to strong SW winds=20
in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Thu night=20
into early Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region=20
along with 5 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
noted in the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in fresh northerly
swell are occurring well offshore Guatemala due to a gap wind=20
event occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to=20
gentle winds are noted elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to=20
pulse each night this week and into the weekend across the=20
Papagayo region. Fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf=20
of Panama each night through Tue, increasing to fresh to strong=20
Tue night, then moderate thereafter. Gentle winds will prevail=20
elsewhere. Seas of 6 to 9 ft will persist into Tue over the=20
waters offshore Guatemala due to N swell from the gap wind event=20
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is located just north of the area. A surface ridge
extends from the high pressure across the northern waters. Light
to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 27N between 126W and
134W. An upper-level trough axis is along 129W from 05N to 26N.
A surface trough is noted from 15N118W to 09N121W. Associated=20
convection is described above in the ITCZ section. Fresh trades=20
are noted north of the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 120W, with=20
the pressure gradient between the troughing and ridging in place.
Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere across the open waters,=20
except near the surface ridge over the northern part of the area.
A large area of seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell covers the waters
north of roughly 02N and west of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft in mainly=20
NW swell elsewhere west of 100W, and 4 to 6 ft east of 100W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the
northern part of the region through Tue. Fresh trades will
continue through tonight across much of the area from the ITCZ=20
to around 22N, and west of 125W, with winds diminishing over the
area Tue into Wed. Long period NW swell over the area will begin
to subside tonight. Expect enhanced showers and thunderstorms to
continue through Tue from the ITCZ to 20N between 120W and 130W.
A cold front is forecast to enter the area, passing southeast of
30N140W by late Tue. The front will extend from 30N135W to=20
28N140W early Wed, and from 30N127W to 26N140W by early Thu.=20
Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are forecast behind the=20
front, along with reinforcing NW swell up to 12 ft near 30N140W=20
by Tue. By the end of the week, low pressure west of the area may
extend a warm front across 140W with fresh to strong easterly=20
winds north of it in the northwest corner of our area, along with
building seas in W swell.

$$
Lewitsky


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