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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220301042816.8BCA71C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 04:28:16 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 010330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/010330Z-011800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010151ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010251ZMAR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 01MAR22 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 87.2E, APPROXIMATELY 968 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 010300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 15S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 123.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 308 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WYNDHAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 282216Z 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT
BROAD CONVECTION OVERHEAD A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER LAND.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONCE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER
WATER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 15S WILL TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA BEFORE EMERGING
OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN AROUND TAU 18 AND THEN REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW
010300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 109.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 111.5E, APPROXIMATELY
341 NM EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME CONVECTION OVERHEAD A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN


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