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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220301060549.674601C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 06:05:49 +0000
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ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600ZMAR2022-020600ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.3S 167.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5S 167.4E, APPROXIMATELY
55NM EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 010256Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
COMPLICATED LOW LEVEL FEATURES WITH AN EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SOUTHWEST OF NEW CALEDONIA, AND A
LLCC JUST EAST OF NEW CALEDONIA OBSCURED BENEATH THE MORE FORMATIVE
AND INTENSE CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION INCLUDING ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-
48HRS WITH BOTH LLCCS EXPECTED TO MERGE AND CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
IDENTIFIABLE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN


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