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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220301063418.25F801C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 06:34:18 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 010632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/7/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/01 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 86.7 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/01 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 425 SW: 305 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2022/03/02 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 390 SW: 305 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 130 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/03/02 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SW: 270 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 85

48H: 2022/03/03 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 360 SW: 250 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 75

60H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 400 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SW: 140 NW: 130

72H: 2022/03/04 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 425 SW: 230 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 155

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/05 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SW: 305 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 140

120H: 2022/03/06 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 155

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF VERNON HAS
IMPROVED, REINFORCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (MORE FREQUENT
ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY) WITHIN A WIDER AND MORE COMPACT CDO.
THE MICROWAVE PASS OF 2013UTC ALLOWED A BETTER LOCALIZATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER, PLACING IT A LITTLE MORE UNDER THE CONVECTION,
TRANSLATING A SLIGHT DECREASE OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE AREA
ANALYZED BY THE CIMSS.
AS A RESULT, VERNON HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF
ABOUT 50KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK. VERNON GRADUALLY TAKES A
SOUTH-WESTERN DIRECTION, GUIDED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE THAT ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS TENDING TO
SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THIS TRACK WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VENRON TO REACH THE
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY: AFTER A STATIONARY PHASE IN
INTENSITY, VERNON WILL BEGIN A PHASE OF TIMID INTENSIFICATION UNDER
THE COUNTERBALANCING EFFECT OF THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT  BECOMING
MODEARTE (ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSES) AND OF A SET OF SATISFACTORY
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (MARKED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE MARGIN
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL).DURING ITS OVERALL SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION,
VERNON SHOULD REACH THE MAXIMUM STAGE OF FTT BY NEXT NIGHT, BEFORE A
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE CONTRIBUTES TO THE REGULAR WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
FROM TOMORROW WEDNESDAY.  MOREOVER, FROM THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE DRASTICALLY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF VERNON ON COLDER WATERS; THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD VERNON TO START GRADUALLY AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

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