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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220301073926.DB4FE1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 07:39:26 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 010739
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure surging down=20
eastern Mexico behind a cold front northeast of the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec region combined with lower pressures south of the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to result in a tight pressure=20
gradient over the area. Gale force northerly winds are forecast=20
to continue through early this morning. Seas are currently up to=20
13 ft. After winds diminish below gale force, strong northerly=20
winds will continue through the end of the week. Please read the=20
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFE=
P2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!r2xwf1E-qLm8mcFY-vUB5CYPr_m5iZnaNrkcMfkieUSYx4z-nXnaSf7=
B2OI3tuUWMatYoCEA$  for more
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia near
07N78W to 06N90W to 03N105W. The ITCZ extends from 03N107W to
08N120W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 08N132W to
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong=20
convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 115W and 125W.=20
Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 11N to 22N
between 120W and 129W, and also from 03N to 08N between 123W and
131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

High pressure is centered northwest of the area. Moderate NW-N
winds dominate the offshore waters of Mexico from near Cabo
Corrientes northward, including in the Gulf of California. Seas
are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell offshore of Baja California, and 5 to 7
ft elsewhere from near Cabo Corrientes northward, except 2 to 4
ft in the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft are elsewhere offshore of southern Mexico, west of the=20
Tehuantepec region.=20

For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate=20
NW-N winds over the waters from near Cabo Corrientes northward
will diminish to gentle through the day. Long period NW swell=20
west of Baja California will subside through the day. Another=20
set of NW swell is forecast to arrive across the same area=20
towards the end of the week. Fresh to locally strong NW-N winds=20
will develop west of Baja California by the end of the week as=20
high pressure builds behind a dying cold front, with fresh to=20
strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the=20
front Thu night into early Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region=20
along with 5 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
noted in the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in fresh northerly
swell are occurring well offshore Guatemala due to a gap wind=20
event occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to=20
gentle winds are noted elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to=20
pulse each night this week and into the weekend across the=20
Papagayo region. Fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf=20
of Panama today, increasing to fresh to strong tonight, then=20
moderate thereafter. Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas of
6 to 9 ft will persist today into this evening over the waters=20
offshore Guatemala due to N swell from the gap wind event in the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is located just north of the area with a surface=20
ridge extending across the northern waters. Light to gentle=20
anticyclonic winds are north of 27N between 127W and 132W. An=20
upper-level trough axis is along 130W from 05N to 25N. A couple=20
of surface troughs are noted nearby, one from 18N123W to 13N123W,
and the other just to the south from 11N122W to 07N127W. Associated
convection is described above in the ITCZ section. Fresh trades=20
are noted north of the ITCZ to about 24N and west of 125W, with=20
the pressure gradient between the troughing and ridging in place.
Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere across the open waters. A=20
large area of seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell covers the waters=20
north of roughly west of 118W, with 5 to 7 ft in mainly NW swell
elsewhere west of 106W, and 4 to 6 ft east of 106W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the
northern part of the region through today. The area of fresh
trades will gradually diminish through Wed. Long period NW swell
over the area will subside somewhat today and tonight from the=20
ITCZ to 22N between 117W and 130W. A cold front is forecast to=20
enter the area, passing southeast of 30N140W later today. The=20
front will extend from 30N135W to 28N140W early Wed, and from=20
30N127W to 26N140W by early Thu. Fresh to locally strong N-NE=20
winds are forecast behind the front, along with reinforcing NW=20
swell up to 12 ft near 30N140W which will arrive ahead of the=20
front this morning. By the end of the week, low pressure west of=20
the area may extend a warm front across 140W with fresh to strong
easterly winds north of it in the northwest corner of our area,=20
along with building seas in W swell.

$$
Lewitsky


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