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Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 Issued From Rsmc Nadi 
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WTPS11 NFFN 010600 CCA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 010825 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6S 167.7E
AT 010600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-EIR VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD09F MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS. 

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC WITH WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. TD09F
LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE INTENSIFIED THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND
MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, FT BASED ON DT
YIELDING T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 23.3S 170.7E MOV AT KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 24.3S 173.3E MOV AT KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 24.7S 175.0E MOV AT KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 24.9S 176.2E MOV AT KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 011400 UTC.


 


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