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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220301113325.2D46A1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 11:33:25 +0000
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271 
AWIO20 FMEE 011130

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/03/01 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warnings WTIO20 013/07 and WTIO30 013/07 issued at 06UTC on Tropical Storm VERNON.

Next warnings at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The monsoon flow is established over most of the basin and feeds a monsoon trough (MT) whose axis undulates between 12 and 17S. Within this MT, no closed clockwise circulation is currently apparent, except from tropical storm VERNON which is maintained by good trade winds convergence. In the western part of the basin, trade winds are struggling to converge towards the MT due to a trough stretching to the south-east of Madagascar. Nevertheless this situation should change in the next few days (see below).

Moderate Tropical Storm VERNON :

Position at 0930UTC : 16.2oS / 86.0oE

Movement : South 10 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 45 kt

Estimated central pressure : 994 hPa
For more information on this system, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

North of the Mascarene Islands :

In the next few days, with the trough south of the Mascarene Islands moving away and the gradual strengthening of the subtropical high combined with conducive large-scale equatorial wave activity (mixed Rossby-gravity wave with possible contribution from Kelvin and Equatorial-Rossby), the MT should strengthen between Madagascar and 65E. The strengthening of the surface convergence, first on the equatorial side and then on the polar side of the MT, within a warm and humid air mass, should thus lead to the build-up of a fairly large low-pressure circulation, monsoon low type, off the north of the Mascarene Islands and between the eastern Malagasy coast and 60E during the weekend. Some models suggest the formation of a moderate tropical storm thereafter, especially from the beginning of next week, but with tropical cyclogenesis probabilities that begin to increase from Sunday on ensemble forecasts. In addition, the presence of a weak upper tropospheric trough south of the Mascar
 ene Isla
 nds this weekend brings a double-edged uncertainty because of the possible wind shear generated (hindering the consolidation of the convective core) but also because of upper level divergence (beneficial to deepening).

There is a low risk of formation of a new tropical storm from Sunday to the north of the Mascarene Islands.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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