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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220301124447.C32E31C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 12:44:47 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 011243
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 85.8 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/02 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 140

24H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 400 SW: 295 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 140

36H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 220 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 110 NW: 140

48H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 230 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 140

60H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 120 NW: 140

72H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/05 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 140

120H: 2022/03/06 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 250

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF VERNON HAS
IMPROVED, REINFORCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (MORE FREQUENT
ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY) WITHIN A WIDER AND MORE COMPACT CDO.
THE LAST MICROWAVE PASSES OF 0753UTC AND 0929UTC HAVE RELOCATED THE
CENTER FURTHER WEST WITH RESPECT TO THE 06UTC ARRAY.
THIS STILL PLACES THE CENTER UNDER THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASING, THE NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT STILL SEEMS TO
BE GENERATING THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ONE
HAS BEEN DECLARED MODERATE STORM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 45KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST. VERNON IS
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING IN A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, GUIDED BY THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH,
WHICH IS TENDING TO SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARDS DURING THE WEEK.
THIS TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING
VERNON TO GAIN THE SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK,
WHILE SPARING THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY : THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION SEEMS QUITE
MIXED : THE CURRENTLY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE
AGAIN FROM TOMORROW. THE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (MARKED UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE MARGIN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL HUMIDITY POTENTIAL), REMAIN NEUTRAL
TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UNTIL TOMORROW.
THEN, DURING ITS GLOBAL MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST, VERNON
SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER AIR CONSTRAINT, PARTICIPATING IN ITS
PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING, THEN IN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN ALTITUDE, THEN IN MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, OCEANIC
POTENTIAL DECREASING DRASTICALLY ON FRIDAY)

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

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