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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220301154908.348051C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 15:49:08 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 011548
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds
around 35 kt at 1200 UTC will diminish below gale force by 1500=20
UTC this morning. Seas are currently up to 10 to 12 ft. After=20
winds diminish below gale force, strong northerly winds will=20
continue through the end of the week. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;=
!!DZ3fjg!tLEP4nUPFP5cU7-ESZy4jonFZjNRBRuWbbrZgNwzPDYXFmcl08nWmNt-Ht3awCBh3o=
Lj6BWt$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia near
07N78W to 03N90W to 04N107W. The ITCZ extends from 04N107W to=20
09N120W to 07N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is=20
noted from 06N to 14N between 116W and 126W. Scattered showers
are noted elsewhere from 14N to 22N between 120W and 126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

High pressure is centered northwest of the area. Moderate NW-N
winds dominate the offshore waters of Mexico from near Cabo
Corrientes northward, including in the Gulf of California. Seas
are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell offshore of Baja California, and 5 to=20
7 ft elsewhere from near Cabo Corrientes northward, except 2 to 3
ft in the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 4=20
to 6 ft are elsewhere offshore of southern Mexico, west of the=20
Tehuantepec region.=20

For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate=20
NW-N winds over the waters from near Cabo Corrientes northward
will diminish to gentle through the day. Long period NW swell=20
west of Baja California will subside through the day. Another=20
set of NW swell is forecast to arrive across the same area=20
towards the end of the week. Fresh to locally strong NW-N winds=20
will develop west of Baja California by the end of the week as=20
high pressure builds behind a dying cold front, with fresh to=20
strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the=20
front Thu night into early Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region=20
along with 5 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh northerly=20
winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in fresh
northerly swell are occurring well offshore Guatemala due to a=20
gap wind event occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly light
to gentle winds are noted elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5=20
ft.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to=20
pulse each night this week and into the weekend across the=20
Papagayo region. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh
to strong tonight, then moderate thereafter. Gentle winds will=20
prevail elsewhere. Seas of 6 to 9 ft will persist today into this
evening over the waters offshore Guatemala due to N swell from=20
the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is located just north of the area with a surface=20
ridge extending across the northern waters. Light to gentle=20
anticyclonic winds are north of 27N between 127W and 132W. An=20
upper-level trough axis along 129W from 07N to 25N is starting=20
to weaken. Associated convection is described above in the ITCZ=20
section. Fresh trades are noted north of the ITCZ to about 21N=20
and west of 125W. Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere across the=20
open waters. Seas are 8-9 ft within the fresh trade wind area.=20
Seas are 5-7 ft east of 115W. A new set of NW swell has now=20
entered the NW corner of our forecast area, with 8-11 ft seas=20
north of 25N and west of 135W. The cold front responsible for=20
generating this swell is still NW of the area, currently from=20
32N139W to 29N144W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120=20
nm either side of the front, extending to 30N140W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the
northern part of the region through today. The area of fresh
trades will gradually diminish through Wed. Long period NW swell
over the area will subside somewhat today and tonight from the=20
ITCZ to 21N between 117W and 130W. The cold front NW of the area
will cross 30N140W late this afternoon. The front will extend=20
from 30N136W to 27N140W early Wed, and from 30N127W to 25N140W by
early Thu. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds are forecast=20
behind the front, along with reinforcing NW swell up to 12 ft=20
near 30N140W which will arrive ahead of the front late this=20
morning. By Fri, low pressure west of the area may extend a warm=20
front across 140W with fresh to strong easterly winds north of it
in the northwest corner of our area, along with building seas in
W swell.

$$
Hagen


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