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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220301173948.1E3311C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 17:39:47 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010251ZMAR2022//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011751ZMAR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B AND C ARE TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 01MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 963 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 15S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.6S 123.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 122.0E, APPROXIMATELY 21
NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD CONVECTION OVERHEAD A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 011331Z METOP B IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING
WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TC 15S WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA BEFORE REMERGING OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN AROUND TAU
12. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW
010300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5S 111.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 110.7E, APPROXIMATELY
295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  A 011430Z PARTIAL ASCAT C PASS REVEALS 30 KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WARM (29-30C); OFFSET BY HIGH (30-35KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT INVEST 95S WILL HAVE LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTXS22 PGTW 011800)
 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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