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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220301191334.370E41C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 19:13:34 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 011827
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 85.0 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/02 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SW: 270 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 150

24H: 2022/03/02 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 400 SW: 240 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 165

36H: 2022/03/03 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 150

48H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SW: 270 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 150

60H: 2022/03/04 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 155

72H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SW: 285 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 150

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/05 18 UTC: 31.6 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 150

120H: 2022/03/06 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE TEMPERATURE OF THE CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE
CDO HAS FLUCTUATED SLIGHTLY BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED,
WITH STILL SUSTAINED ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
CIMSS ANALYSIS, THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM VERNON IS STILL
UNDERGOING STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THIS
FACTOR UNDOUBTEDLY LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THIS
AFTERNOON, AND IN VIEW OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY REMAINS FIXED AT 45 KT AT THE HIGH LIMIT OF
THE SATCON/ADT DATA, WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CDO AS SUGGESTED
BY THE LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGE (1045Z SSMIS). GIVEN THE LACK
OF GOOD SCATTEROMETRIC DATA AND MORE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES, THE
LOCATION OF THE LLC IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST. VERNON IS
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING IN A SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION, GUIDED BY THE
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING
EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH TENDS TO SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE
WEEK. THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING
VERNON TO REACH THE SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK,
WHILE AVOIDING THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON SHOULD NOT HAVE OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. INDEED, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOULD NOT ONLY MAINTAIN BUT ALSO INCREASE AGAIN
FROM TOMORROW, ON THE EDGE OF A TALWEG LOCATED  WEST OF VERNON. THIS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PARTICIPATE DIRECTLY TO THE INJECTION OF DRY
AIR IN THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH, FINISHING TO WEAKEN
VERNON DURABLY. FROM THURSDAY, DURING ITS GLOBAL MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BE LACKING, WITH THE
ARRIVAL ON COLDER WATERS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD
VERNON TO START AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND THE 26TH PARALLEL
ON FRIDAY.

THERE ARE NO EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE INHABITED LANDS.=

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