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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 21:02:12 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 012102
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia near
07N78W to 03N95W to 03N105W to 04N108W. The ITCZ extends from 
04N108W to 08N118W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 07N to 15N between 114W and 127W. Scattered showers 
are noted elsewhere from 15N to 22N between 116W and 126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong to near gale force N winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. A recent altimeter satellite pass from 01/1730 UTC 
reveals 8 to 10 ft seas well south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
along a line from 13N96W to 10.5N95W. High pressure is centered
northwest of the area. A recent ASCAT satellite pass from 01/1744
UTC shows gentle NW winds in the Gulf of California and over the
waters to the west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds are
noted elsewhere off Mexico. Seas are 7-8 ft west of Baja 
California in NW swell. Seas are 1-2 ft in the Gulf of
California. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere, west of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec region.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force northerly winds will
continue through Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, followed
by fresh to strong N winds Fri through Fri night, diminishing to
gentle for the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle winds will prevail
through Thu morning. Long period NW swell west of Baja California
will continue to subside through this evening. Fresh to locally 
strong NW-N winds will develop west of Baja California by Fri and
persist through the weekend behind a dying cold front. NW swell
will come with this cold front, with seas building to 10-14 ft
west of Baja California Norte by late Fri. Seas of 8-10 ft will
build southward, off Baja California Sur on Sat. Fresh to strong
SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California ahead 
of the front Thu night into Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region along with
5 to 7 ft seas offshore. An ASCAT satellite pass from 01/1427 UTC
shows moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama, where seas
are likely 3-4 ft. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in northerly swell are well
offshore Guatemala due to a gap wind event occurring in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere,
along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to 
pulse each night across the Papagayo region through at least Fri
night. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to strong
tonight, then moderate thereafter. Gentle winds will prevail 
elsewhere. Seas of 6 to 9 ft will persist into this evening over
the waters offshore Guatemala before subsiding overnight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A high pressure ridge extends from 30N130W to 23N135W, with
gentle winds covering the area north of 25N between 125W-135W,
according to recent ASCAT satellite wind data. The area of fresh
trades north of the ITCZ continues to shrink in areal extent, and
now extends from the ITCZ to 18N between 125W and 138W. Moderate
S winds are developing now in the NW corner of the area, north 
of 25N and west of 135W, ahead of an approaching cold front. 
Mainly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the open 
waters. Seas are 8-9 ft within the fresh trade wind area. Seas
are 6-7 ft east of 115W. A new set of NW swell has entered the 
NW corner of our forecast area, with 8-12 ft seas north of 24N 
and west of 134W. The cold front responsible for generating this 
swell is still NW of the area, currently from 32N138W to 29N143W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of 
the front, extending north of 27N and west of 137W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the 
northern part of the region through tonight, to the east of the
approaching cold front. The area of fresh trades will gradually 
diminish through Wed. Long period NW swell over the area will 
subside somewhat tonight from the ITCZ to 18N between 124W and 
140W. The cold front NW of the area will cross 30N140W early this
evening. The front will extend from 30N136W to 27N140W early 
Wed, from 30N127W to 25N140W early Thu and from 31N116W to
25N121W early Fri. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds are 
forecast behind the front, along with reinforcing NW swell. By 
Fri, low pressure west of the area may extend a warm front across
140W with fresh to strong easterly winds north of it in the 
northwest corner of our area, along with building seas in W 
swell. Farther east, fresh to strong NW to N winds and building
seas are likely north of 28N between 120W-128W Thu night and Fri
behind the aforementioned cold front.

$$
Hagen


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