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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220301212915.98CFF1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 21:29:15 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 012130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/012130Z-021800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011951ZMAR2022//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011751ZMAR2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 01MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 963 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 01MAR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.2S 121.6E, APPROXIMATELY 39 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BROOME,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 012100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 15S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 122.0E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING. SEE PARA. 2.A.(2) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 110.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 110.9E, APPROXIMATELY
307 NM EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. A 011430Z PARTIAL ASCAT C PASS
REVEALS 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C); OFFSET BY HIGH (30-35KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT INVEST 95S WILL
HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTXS22
PGTW 011800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO WARNING
STATUS. //
NNNN

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