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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220302004648.33A7A1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2022 00:46:48 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 020033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/02 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 84.3 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 705 SW: 595 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX=3D 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 650 SW: 530 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 95

24H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX=3D 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 665 SW: 535 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 95

36H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=3D 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 685 SW: 545 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 95

48H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=3D 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 705 SW: 555 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 360 SW: 315 NW: 95

60H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX=3D 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 720 SW: 565 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 95

72H: 2022/03/05 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=3D 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 740 SW: 575 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/06 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX=3D 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 770 SW: 595 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 415 SW: 360 NW: 95

120H: 2022/03/07 00 UTC: 35.7 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=3D 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 805 SW: 610 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 435 SW: 380 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3D3 AND CI=3D3.5-

SINCE THE LAST FORECAST NETWORK, THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN HAS
EVOLVED SMOOTHLY INTO A CURVED BAND PATTERN. THE MAIN CONVECTION AREA
HAS NOT STOPPED FLUCTUATING OVER THE NIGHT, DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH HAS HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED SINCE THE 18 UTC NETWORK, THANKS TO THE DRIFT OF
VERNON, TO THE RIDGE AXIS. CLASSICAL INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW A
WELL-MARKED OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND A NICE
ARC SHEAR  ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF VERNON. GIVEN THE LACK OF
MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETRIC DATA, THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER (LLC) IS STILL A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY.
HOWEVER, CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LLC LOCATED AT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CDO. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
WEAKENED AT 40 KT, AND IS BASED ON A RATHER STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AVAILABLE.

WE KEEP THE SAME PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FORECAST TRACK. VERNON KEEPS
GOING ITS SOUTH-WESTERN TRAJECTORY, GUIDED BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VERNON TO REACH THE
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON SHOULD NOT HAVE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. INDEED, THE CURRENTLY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD NOT ONLY BE MAINTAINED BUT ALSO INCREASE AGAIN FROM
TOMORROW, BECAUSE OF THE ARRIVAL OF A UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND
WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
PARTICIPATE IN A SECOND TIME IN THE INJECTION OF DRY AIR ABOVE VERNON
HEART FROM THE NORTH, FINISHING TO WEAKEN DURABLY. FROM THURSDAY,
DURING ITS GLOBAL MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST, THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BE LACKING, WITH THE ARRIVAL ON COLDER WATERS.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD VERNON TO START AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND THE 26TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY.

THERE ARE NO EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE INHABITED LANDS.

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