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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220302065129.74EC81C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2022 06:51:29 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 020629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 83.7 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 705 SW: 630 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 350 SW: 205 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/02 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 555 SW: 350 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 150 NW: 150

24H: 2022/03/03 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 530 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SW: 120 NW: 130

36H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 535 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 150

48H: 2022/03/04 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 530 SW: 325 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 140

60H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 500 SW: 370 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 155

72H: 2022/03/05 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 490 SW: 350 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 150

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/06 06 UTC: 32.5 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 155

120H: 2022/03/07 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 520 SW: 415 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- AND CI=3.5-

THE ASCAT SWATHS FROM 03Z-04Z THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN VERY USEFUL TO
SPECIFY THE POSITION OF THE CENTER AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY AND THE
STRUCTURE OF VERNON. IF ALL SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE
BASED ON A CURRENT INTENSITY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KT, THE ASCAT DATA
GIVE MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 45-50 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE
FINAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 45 KT. THE SURFACE CENTER APPEARS AT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS RECENTLY.

NO CHANGE OF PHILOSOPHY FOR THE TRACK FORECAST: VERNON CONTINUES ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, STEERED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THIS TRACK  WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VERNON TO REACH THE
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON SHOULD NOT HAVE OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM
MODERATE TO STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR, OFFSETTING THE VERY GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ALONG A BRANCH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE AND
INCREASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST, WHICH SHOULD
INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH BAROCLINIC MECHANISMS. FROM THURSDAY,
THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BE LACKING, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
COLDER WATERS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD VERNON TO
START AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND THE 26TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY.

THERE ARE NO EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE INHABITED LANDS.=

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