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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220302121325.097391C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2022 12:13:25 +0000
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006 
AWIO20 FMEE 021210

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/03/02 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warnings WTIO20 017/07 and WTIO30 017/07 issued at 06UTC on Tropical Storm VERNON.

Next warnings at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow is present over most of the basin and feeds a monsoon trough (MT) with an undulating axis between 12 and 18S. Apart from the tropical storm VERNON, a second minimum is present between Mauritius and Rodrigues today. The convective activity is particularly strong on the northern side of the TM in the convergence of the monsoon flow.

Moderate Tropical Storm VERNON :

Position at 09UTC : 19.1oS / 83.8oE

Movement : South-South-West 11 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 45 kt

Estimated central pressure : 992 hPa
For more information on this system, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

North of the Mascarene Islands :

An area of disturbed weather is present today east of Mauritius, located at 1030Z around 19.1S/59.3E. The 0546Z ASCAT pass shows the presence of near gale force winds (30kt) in the southern semicircle of a very elongated center. This afternoon there is no more convective activity near the center due to strong westerly shear . Further north the MT is not yet very well defined with weak trade winds on the southern side limiting the surface convergence. Over the next few days, this minimum should have no potential for development and should merge into the low-pressure area around Tromelin.

Indeed, under the impulse of a marked wave activity on the equatorial side (MRG), the monsoon flow remains well meridian over the western part of the basin, and a strengthening of the trade winds on the subtropical side from Friday, a low should form Saturday or Sunday east of Tromelin. The models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario but diverge quite rapidly beyond that. Indeed, the American model suggests a rapid deepening pushed by a strong monsoon flow with a southward movement to Mauritius. The European model is slower to develop favoring a southwestward track west of the Mascarenes.  In the long-term, different track scenarios are also related to the presence of an upper trough south of Reunion Island. The latter could also favor the presence of a northerly shear leading to a lower intensity.

The situation is still very uncertain on both the speed of development and the potential track. Although it is still too early to properly assess the degree of threat for the inhabited lands, a deterioration of the weather seems likely at the beginning of next week over the Mascarenes or Madagascar. It is therefore recommended to stay updated on the next forecasts.

There is a low risk of formation of a new tropical storm from Sunday north of the Mascarene Islands.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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