Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220302125406.DACF91C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2022 12:54:06 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1646225650-112669-8320"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1646225650-112669-8320
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 021236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 83.6 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 705 SW: 630 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 350 SW: 205 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 535 SW: 305 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 155 NW: 140

24H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 490 SW: 305 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 140

36H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 535 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 155 NW: 150

48H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 470 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 130

60H: 2022/03/05 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 465 SW: 350 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 155

72H: 2022/03/05 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 155

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/06 12 UTC: 33.9 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 455 SW: 220 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 150 NW: 155

120H: 2022/03/07 12 UTC: 37.4 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SW: 435 NW: 230

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- AND CI=3.5-

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN SOME FLUCTUATIONS SINCE THE LAST BULLETIN
WITH A TENDENCY TO DEGRADE UNTIL 09 UTC (CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED)
THEN IMPROVING SOMEWHAT SINCE WITH A SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW LAYER CENTER (SEE 37 GHZ IMAGERY)
WITH A LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY
REMAINS ANALYZED AT 45 KT.

NO CHANGE OF PHILOSOPHY FOR THE TRACK FORECAST: VERNON CONTINUES ITS
SOUTH-WESTERN MOTION, GUIDED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS SLIDING
PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE TRACK OF
VERNON IS GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VERNON TO REACH THE EXTRATROPICAL
LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE INHABITED LANDS
OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON SHOULD NOT HAVE OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM
MODERATE TO STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR, OFFSETTING THE VERY GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ON THE EDGE OF A
BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
CONTINUE AND INCREASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST, WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM BY BAROCLINIC MECHANISMS.
FROM THURSDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BE LACKING, WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER WATERS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD
VERNON TO START AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND THE 26TH PARALLEL
ON FRIDAY.

THERE ARE NO EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE INHABITED LANDS.=

------------=_1646225650-112669-8320
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1646225650-112669-8320--