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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone 15s (anika) Warning Nr 010// 
Message-ID: <20220302132146.EB2971C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2022 13:21:46 +0000
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WTXS32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WARNING NR 010
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 120.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 120.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 20.8S 120.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 22.0S 122.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 22.9S 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 120.6E.
02MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED RADAR
DATA FROM THE PT. HEDLAND RADAR INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED RADAR EYE,
MAKING LANDFALL AT THE 021200Z HOUR, IN THE VICINITY OF WALLAL
DOWNS, AUSTRALIA. THE EYE WAS STRADDLING THE COAST AT 1200Z, MARKING
LANDFALL. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE RADAR EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45
KNOTS BASED ON A SUBJECTIVE FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRUCTURE
IN THE RADAR AND ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY, AS THERE ARE NO DVORAK
OR OTHER INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVAILABLE NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER
LAND. TC ANIKA SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST AND
IS NOW DRIFTING SLOWLY INLAND. IT IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
FEELS THE EFFECTS OF A STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER THE GREAT SANDY
DESERT, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY AS ALONG-TRACK RAINFALL
HAS SATURATED THE GROUND AND WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINMENT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS FOR SOME TIME. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN 36 HOURS. OBJECTIVE AIDS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SLOW WEAKENING
TREND THROUGH DISSAPATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(VERNON) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


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