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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220302141808.B048C1C0EF1@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2022 14:18:08 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 021400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/021400Z-021800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020753ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020151ZMAR2022//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/0201352ZMAR2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.
AMPN/REF C IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
       (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY
395NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 021040Z SSMIS 94GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN
OBSCURED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL
AS 90B IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM SEA TEMPURATURES (29-30C) AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHING OVER THE NEXT 36-
48 HOURS. AS IT REACHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SRI LANKA AND THE
SOUTH EASTERN COAST OF INDIA THE WINDOW FOR 90B TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IS LIMITED WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING IT WILL
REACH LAND AT ROUGHLY THE SAME INSTANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.
       (2) NO OTHER SUPSECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02MAR22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY 711 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS33 PGTW 020900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 02MAR22 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 84.7E, APPROXIMATELY 952 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 020300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (3) AT 02MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.9S 120.5E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTXS32 PGTW
021500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ISSUED FINAL WARNING FOR TC 15S.//
NNNN


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