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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2022 15:52:43 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 021551
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Mar 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends near the coast of Colombia from 07N78W 
to 04N90W to 03N100W to 04N110W. The ITCZ extends from 04N110W TO
05N115W then continues W of a trough near 06N122W to 08N130W to
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N
between 82W and 97W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Overnight earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated strong N 
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are still likely to
be strong to near gale-force in the hours since. Seas are likely
8 to 10 ft with these winds. Fresh N-NE swell generated earlier 
by this prolonged gap wind event continue to propagate near 
10N99W with seas up to around 8 ft. A ridge of high pressure 
extends across the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico 
from northwest to southeast. Gentle to locally moderate winds are
under the ridging, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. 
Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, highest near the
entrance. Showers are streaming across Baja California Sur and
the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, strong to near gale force northerly winds will
continue through Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, followed
by fresh to strong N winds Fri through Fri night, diminishing to
gentle by Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds will 
prevail through Thu morning. A new set of NW swell will build
seas slightly west of Baja California, up to 8 ft from Punta
Eugenia northward, tonight. Fresh to locally strong NW-N winds 
will develop west of Baja California by Fri and persist through 
the weekend behind a dying cold front. NW swell will come with 
this cold front, with seas building to 10 to 14 ft west of Baja 
California by late Fri. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will build southward,
off Baja California Sur on Sat. Fresh to strong SW winds are 
expected in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front 
Thu night through Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region 
along with seas to 6 ft offshore. Moderate to locally fresh N 
winds are in the Gulf of Panama with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Mainly 
light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere, along with seas of 3 
to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to 
pulse each night across the Papagayo region through at least Fri 
night. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse moderate to fresh,
mainly at night. Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will 
build slightly offshore of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands 
through the end of the week due to a SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1020 mb is located near 28N134W. A ridge axis 
extends from the high southeastward to beyond the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are found under this 
ridge north of 20N and east of 132W, along with 6 to 7 ft seas in
old NW swell. A cold front extends from 30N136W to 27N140W with
moderate to fresh N-NE winds are behind the front. A set of NW 
swell associated with this frontal system has propagated well 
southeast of the parent front with seas of 7 to 11 ft north of 
17N and west of 125W. Two surface troughs are near the ITCZ from
11N120W to 06N117W and from 11N125W to 08N125W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near these troughs from 09N to 15N
between 117W and 126W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are 
north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W due to the pressure 
gradient between the ridge and trough, with gentle to moderate 
winds elsewhere across the open waters. Seas are 7 to 8 ft in old
NW swell and mixed NE wind waves south of 20N and west of 117W, 
with 6 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the 
northern part of the region to the east of the encroaching cold 
front. The area of moderate to fresh trades will gradually 
diminish through today. The old NW swell over the west-central
and southwest waters will subside through the end of the week. 
The cold front will extend from 30N132W to 25N140W by this
evening, from 30N123W to 25N140W early Thu morning, and from
30N117W to 23N123W by early Fri morning. Fresh to strong N-NE 
winds are forecast behind the front by this afternoon, along with
continuing NW swell. By Fri, low pressure west of the area may 
extend a warm front across 140W with fresh to strong easterly 
winds north of it in the northwest corner of our area, along with
building seas in W swell. Farther east, fresh to strong NW to N 
winds and building seas are likely north of 28N between 120W and 
128W Thu night and Fri behind the aforementioned cold front.

$$
AReinhart


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