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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220302175501.7A8F51C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2022 17:55:01 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021353ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021351ZMAR2022//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021352ZMAR2022//
NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 383 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 021225Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS
REVEALS AN OBSCURED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL AS 90B IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM SEA TEMPURATURES (29-30C) AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
WESTNORTHWEST GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHING OVER THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS. AS IT REACHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SRI LANKA AND THE
SOUTH EASTERN COAST OF INDIA THE WINDOW FOR 90B TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IS LIMITED WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING IT WILL
REACH LAND AT ROUGHLY THE SAME INSTANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 742 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS33 PGTW 021500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 02MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 83.5E, APPROXIMATELY 973 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 021500 COR) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) AT 02MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.9S 120.5E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTXS32 PGTW
021500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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