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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220302180242.F0E291C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2022 18:02:42 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 021801
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 83.0 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 650 SW: 555 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 350 SW: 220 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/03 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 520 SW: 295 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 150

24H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 520 SW: 285 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 150

36H: 2022/03/04 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 510 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 140

48H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 480 SW: 335 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 165

60H: 2022/03/05 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 465 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 155

72H: 2022/03/05 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SW: 345 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 150

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/06 18 UTC: 34.9 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 480 SW: 345 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 130

120H: 2022/03/07 18 UTC: 37.5 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 220

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- AND CI=3.5-

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS,
SHOWING NEVERTHELESS SIGNS OF SHEARING. MOREOVER, THE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW LAYER CENTER (CF
37 GHZ IMAGERY), WHICH IS A SIGN OF THE DIFFICULTIES ENCOUNTERED BY
THE DEEP CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. THE INTENSITY REMAINS
ANALYZED AT 45 KT, CONFIRMED BY THE LAST ASCAT PASS (1645UTC).

NO CHANGE OF PHILOSOPHY FOR THE TRACK FORECAST: VERNON CONTINUES ITS
SOUTH-WESTERN MOTION, GUIDED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS SLIDING
PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE TRACK OF
VERNON IS GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VERNON TO REACH THE EXTRATROPICAL
LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE INHABITED LANDS
OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON SHOULD NOT HAVE OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM
MODERATE TO STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR, OFFSETTING THE VERY GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ON THE EDGE OF A
BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
CONTINUE AND INCREASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST, WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM BY BAROCLINIC MECHANISMS.
FROM THURSDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BE LACKING, WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER WATERS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD
VERNON TO START AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND THE 26TH PARALLEL
ON FRIDAY.

THERE ARE NO EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE INHABITED LANDS.=

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