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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 Issued From Rsmc Nadi 
Message-ID: <20220302195134.8AA051C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2022 19:51:34 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 021800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 021951 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2S 172.8E
AT 021800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD09F MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS. 

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NE QUADRANT 
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES WITHIN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES WITHIN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES WITHIN NW QUADRANT.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH OF LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS
TRYING TO WRAP ITSELF ONTO LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. TD09F LIES IN A LOW
TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE INTENSIFIED THE SYSTEM IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARDS
THEN WESTAWARDS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.50 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, FT BASED ON DT YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 25.1S 173.5E MOV ENE AT 03 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 24.7S 173.4E MOV NE AT 02 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 24.5S 172.9E MOV N AT 01 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 24.7S 171.8E MOV WNW AT 01 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 030200UTC.


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