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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220302220054.9DECD1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2022 22:00:54 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 022200
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Mar 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to
04N90W to 03N110W. The ITCZ extends from 03N110W to 07N127W to
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N
to 08N between 82W and 96W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The ASCAT scatterometer pass from earlier today showed fresh to
strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are likely 8 to 9
ft. High pressure ridging continues to extend across the rest of
the area. This is bringing light to gentle winds across the
remainder of the area. Seas range 5 to 7 ft in NW swell over the
Baja California offshores and SW Mexico. The Gulf of California
maintains 3 ft seas or less with the highest near the entrance.
Showers continue to stream across Baja California Sur and the
Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, strong to near gale force northerly winds will
continue through Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will
become fresh to strong N from Fri through Fri night and diminish
to gentle by Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds will 
prevail through Thu morning. A new set of NW swell will build 
seas slightly west of Baja California, up to 8 ft from Punta 
Eugenia northward tonight. The swell will subside by Thu night as
the front weakens. Fresh to strong NW-N winds will develop west 
of Baja California by Fri night and persist through the weekend 
behind the dying cold front. NW swell will come with this cold 
front, with seas building to 10 to 15 ft west of Baja California
by late Fri. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will build southward, off Baja 
California Sur on Sat. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected in 
the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Thu night 
through Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The ASCAT scatterometer pass from earlier today showed fresh to 
strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas are reaching 8
ft in this region. Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Panama 
with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted 
elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to 
pulse each night across the Papagayo region through at least Fri 
night. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse moderate to fresh,
mainly at night through Fri night. Gentle winds will prevail 
elsewhere. Seas will build slightly offshore of Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands through the end of the week due to a SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1019 mb is located near 25N135W. A ridge axis 
extends from the high southeastward to beyond the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are found under this 
ridge north of 20N and east of 120W, along with 6 to 7 ft seas 
in old NW swell. A cold front extends from 30N134W to 26N140W 
with fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front. A set of NW
swell associated with this frontal system has propagated well 
southeast of the parent front with seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 
16N and west of 122W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are north
of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W due to the pressure gradient
between the ridge and trough, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere across the open waters. Seas are 7 to 8 ft in old NW 
swell and mixed NE wind waves south of 20N and west of 117W, with
6 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the 
northern part of the region to the east of the cold front. The 
old NW swell over the west-central and southwest waters will 
subside through the end of the week. The cold front will extend 
from 30N132W to 25N140W by this evening, from 30N124W to 23N140W
Thu morning, and from 30N116W to 22N124W by Fri morning. Fresh 
to strong N-NE winds are forecast behind the front by this 
afternoon, along with continuing NW swell. By Fri, low pressure 
west of the area may extend a warm front near 140W with fresh to
strong easterly winds north of it in the northwest corner of our
area, along with building seas in W swell. Farther east, fresh 
to strong NW to N winds and building seas are likely north of 28N
between 120W and 128W Thu night and Fri behind the aforementioned
cold front.

$$
AReinhart


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