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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220303012426.770F01C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 01:24:26 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 030124
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Mar 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0120 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia 
near 07.5N78W to 08N87W to 03N110W. The ITCZ extends from 03N110W
to 09N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 03N to 07N between 83W and 88W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Fresh to strong northerly winds are blowing in the immediate Gulf
of Tehuantepec with seas likely 5 to 7 ft. High pressure ridging
continues to extend across the rest of the area. This is 
bringing mainly gentle winds across the remainder of the area. 
Seas range 5 to 7 ft in NW swell over the Baja California 
offshores and SW Mexico. The Gulf of California maintains 3 ft 
seas or less with the highest near the entrance. Showers continue
to stream across Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force northerly winds will
continue through Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds 
will become fresh to strong N from Fri through Fri night and 
diminish to gentle by Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly gentle 
winds will prevail through Thu morning. A new set of NW swell 
will build seas slightly west of Baja California, up to 8 ft from
Punta Eugenia northward tonight. The swell will subside by Thu 
night. Fresh to strong NW-N winds will develop west of Baja 
California by Fri night and persist through the weekend behind 
the dying cold front. NW swell will come with this cold front, 
with seas building to 10 to 15 ft west of Baja California by late
Fri. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will build southward, off Baja 
California Sur on Sat. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected in 
the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Thu night 
through Fri night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas 
are reaching 7 ft in this region. Moderate N winds are in the 
Gulf of Panama with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mainly light to gentle 
winds are noted elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except
up to 6 ft offshore of Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to 
pulse each night across the Papagayo region through early Sat, 
then moderate to fresh thereafter. Winds in the Gulf of Panama 
will pulse moderate to fresh, mainly at night through Fri night. 
Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will build slightly 
offshore of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the end of 
the week due to a SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A cold front extends from 30N132W to 25.5N140W. with moderate 
to fresh N to NE winds behind the front. A set of NW swell 
associated with this frontal system has propagated well southeast
of the parent front with seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 15N and 
west of 120W. Broad high pressure is located east of the front
centered near 24N123W. A ridge axis extends from the high 
southeastward to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle 
anticyclonic winds are found under this ridge north and ahead of 
the cold front, along with 6 to 7 ft seas in old NW swell. 
Moderate trades are north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 110W, 
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the open waters. 
Seas are mainly 6 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open 
waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the 
northern part of the region to the east of the cold front. The 
old NW swell over the west-central and southwest waters will 
subside through the end of the week. The cold front will extend 
from 30N132W to 25N140W this evening, from 30N124W to 23N140W 
Thu morning, and from 30N116W to 22N124W by Fri morning. Fresh to
strong N-NE winds are forecast behind the front by this 
afternoon, along with continuing NW swell. By Fri, low pressure 
west of the area may extend a warm front near 140W with fresh to 
strong easterly winds north of it in the northwest corner of our 
area, along with building seas in W swell. Farther east, fresh to
strong NW to N winds and building seas are likely north of 28N 
between 120W and 128W Thu night and Fri behind the aforementioned
cold front.

$$
Lewitsky


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