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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-N: 
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Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 04:35:30 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 030433
                    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 03.03.2022

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL  AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0400 UTC
 OF 03.03.2022 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 03.03.2022.

BAY OF BENGAL: DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN

THE WELL- MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF
BENGAL AND ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
 AND CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000 UTC OF
TODAY, THE 3RD MARCH 2022, OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN NEAR LATITUDE 5.3ON AND LONGITUDE 84.0OE,
ABOUT 470 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 760 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM (43347) AND 870 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND ABOUT 950 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI(43279).

IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG AND OFF
EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA  TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST DURING
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

DATE/TIME(UTC)    POSITION      MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE   CATEGORY
OF CYCLONIC
               (LAT.N/LONG.E)    WIND SPEED (KMPH)
DISTURBANCE
03.03.22/0000    5.3/84.0        40-50 GUSTING TO 60
DEPRESSION
03.03.22/1200    6.7/83.0        45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION
04.03.22/0000    8.1/82.2        50-60 GUSTING TO 70        DEEP
DEPRESSION
04.03.22/1200    9.5/81.5        50-60 GUSTING TO 70        DEEP
DEPRESSION
05.03.22/0000    10.9/80.7       50-60 GUSTING TO 70        DEEP
DEPRESSION

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5.  ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER
AREA BET LAT 5.0N TO 12.0N LONG 80.0E TO 91.0E & SRILANKA. MINIMUM
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93 DEG C. CONVECTION IS MORE IN THE
NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN. THE ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA.

A SHIP LOCATED NEAR LAT 6.0 DEG N/LONG 93.1 DEG E MSLP OF 1005.0 HPA
AND WINDS OF 80 DEG/14 KTS. ANOTHER SHIP LOCATED NEAR LAT 5.3 DEG
N/LONG 81.7  DEG E MSLP OF 1007.0 HPA AND WINDS OF 50 DEG/14 KTS.

REMARKS:
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 280C OVER SOUTH BOB. TROPICAL
CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION.
THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY LIES IN PHASE 5 WITH
AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE SAME PHASE
FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS THAN 1. THE
PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE BOB
DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS. FEEBLE EASTERLIES (1-3 MPS) ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL OVER SOUTHWEST BOB DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS. NO OTHER EQUATORIAL
WAVE IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING NEXT 5 DAYS.

LOW LEVEL VORTICITY HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING PAST 24 HOURS
AND IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1  TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE.
VERTICALLY IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS SAME DURING PAST 24 HOURS AND IS AROUND 20 X10-5 S-1  TO THE
NRTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 20 X10-5
S-1
TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE.  WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO
HIGH (25-30 KNOTS).

MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, ECMWF, GEFS,
NCUM (G), NCUM (R) AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE INDICATING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS
ARE UNANIMOUS W.R.T. MOVEMENT TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST DURING
NEXT 48 HOURS.

IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER
SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MARGINALLY DURING NEXT 24 HOURS
AND MOVE TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST.=

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