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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Cyclones, New Delhi 
Message-ID: <20220303063254.4FAD11C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 06:32:54 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 030630
              REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL
CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
                                                 TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK
       DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 03.03.2022
       SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE
BAY OF
       BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT
0600 UTC OF
       03.03.2022 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 03.03.2022.
       BAY OF BENGAL: DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND
ADJOINING
       EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN
                 THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND
ADJOINING
       EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTERED
AT
       0300 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE 3RD MARCH 2022, OVER THE SAME
REGION NEAR
       LATITUDE 5.6ON AND LONGITUDE 83.7OE, ABOUT 420 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
       TRINCOMALEE (43418), 760 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPPATTINAM
(43347)
       820 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND ABOUT 900 KM
SOUTH-
       SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI(43279).
                IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING
       NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG AND
OFF EAST
       COAST OF SRI LANKA TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST DURING NEXT
48
       HOURS.
       FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
          DATE/TIME(UTC)              POSITION       MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED                    CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
                                       (LAT. 0N/             SURFACE
DISTURBANCE
                                      LONG. 0E)       WIND SPEED
(KMPH)
            03.03.22/0300               5.6/83.7      40-50 GUSTING
TO 60                          DEPRESSION
            03.03.22/1200               6.7/83.0      45-55 GUSTING
TO 65                          DEPRESSION
            04.03.22/0000               8.1/82.2      50-60 GUSTING
TO 70                      DEEP DEPRESSION
            04.03.22/1200               9.5/81.5      50-60 GUSTING
TO 70                      DEEP DEPRESSION
            05.03.22/0000              10.9/80.7      50-60 GUSTING
TO 70                      DEEP DEPRESSION
       THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED
CLOUDS WITH
       EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BET
LAT 5.0DEG N
       TO 12.0DEGN LONG 80.0 DEG E TO 91.0E & SRILANKA. MINIMUM CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURE
       IS MINUS 93 DEG C. CONVECTION IS MORE IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM.
       THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 35 KNOTS.
       THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL &
       ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004
       HPA.
THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
SPECIFIC BULLETINS
REMARKS:
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY
LIES IN PHASE 6 W ITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
IN THE
SAME PHASE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS THAN
1.
THE PHASE OF MJO IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION DURING
NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1 AND LIES TO THE NORTHEAST
OF
SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICALLY IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW
LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS SAME DURING PAST 24 HOURS AND IS AROUND 20 X10-5 S-1
TO
THE NRTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 30
X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. W IND SHEAR IS MODERATE
TO
HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE AND IS INCREASE TOWARDS
TAMILNADU COAST.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, ECMWF, GEFS, NCUM
(G),
NCUM (R) AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE INDICATING SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS
W.R.T. MOVEMENT TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.
IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER
SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MARGINALLY DURING NEXT 24 HOURS
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE TOW ARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST.
 THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 3 MARCH, 2022.
                                                              (DR RK
JENAMANI)

SCIENTIST-F
                                                               RSMC
NEW DELHI=

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