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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220303071336.D8B181C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 07:13:36 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 030626
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/7/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 81.4 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 595 SW: 465 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 565 SW: 445 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 75

24H: 2022/03/04 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 585 SW: 455 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 285 NW: 165

36H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 595 SW: 470 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 295 NW: 165

48H: 2022/03/05 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 610 SW: 480 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75

60H: 2022/03/05 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 620 SW: 500 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 435 SW: 335 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 75

72H: 2022/03/06 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 640 SW: 510 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SW: 350 NW: 165

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/07 06 UTC: 36.1 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 665 SW: 535 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 490 SW: 390 NW: 165

120H: 2022/03/08 06 UTC: 38.4 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 695 SW: 565 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 535 SW: 415 NW: 165

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5

NEW OBJECTIVE INTENSITY DATA FROM LAST NIGHT (SMAP 0022Z, PARTIAL
SMOS AT 0103Z) SHOWED THAT VERNON'S MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED (UP TO 63 KT ON THE SMAP PASS).
YESTERDAY'S ASCAT PASSES INDICATED WINDS UP TO 45/50 KT, WHICH,
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNDERESTIMATION IN THESE WIND RANGES, MAY
ALSO CORRESPOND TO ACTUAL WINDS UP TO 55 KT AT LEAST. THE BEST TRACK
HAS THEREFORE BEEN READJUSTED FOR THE 02 MARCH 18UTC (50 KT) AND 03
MARCH 00UTC (55 KT). OTHER CHANGES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE MADE ON
FORMER DATES IN POST ANALYSIS. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, VERNON'S
CLOUD PATTERN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED, WITH A CLEAR WARMING OF
CLOUD TOPS AND A SHEARED PATTERN, EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. DT DROPS TO 3.0 AND MET/PT ARE DOWN TO
2.5, WITH A CI LAGGING AT 3.5 (ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A SLIGHT
UNDERESTIMATION ON THE PREVIOUS ANALYSES). FINAL INTENSITY IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF LAST NIGHT AND THE
OBSERVED STRUCTURE'S DETERIORATION SINCE 00UTC, HENCE AN ESTIMATE AT
50 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VERNON CONTINUES IN A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION,
GUIDED BY THE MID-LEVEL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM
AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD BEFORE INTERCEPTING VERNON. THE TRACK WILL
THUS GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, LEADING VERNON TO REACH THE EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING INHABITED LANDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM
MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL SHEAR, OFFSETTING THE VERY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ON THE EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH. ITS RATHER FAST MOVEMENT TODAY SHOULD
NEVERTHELESS ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH WARM AIR NEAR THE CENTER,
BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD THEN INCREASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM BY
BAROCLINIC MECHANISMS. MOREOVER, OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME TOO
LOW FROM THIS EVENING WHILE THE SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER COLDER WATERS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD VERNON TO START EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEYOND THE 26TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY.=

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