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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220303073034.B85291C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 07:30:34 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 030730
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0720 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia 
near 07.5N78W to 08N87W to 02N106W. The ITCZ extends from 02N108W
to 08N134W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 02N to 07N between 85W and 95W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Fresh to strong northerly winds are blowing in the immediate Gulf
of Tehuantepec with seas likely 6 to 8 ft. High pressure ridging
continues to extend across the rest of the area with gentle winds.
Seas range 5 to 7 ft in NW swell over the Baja California 
offshores and SW Mexico, except building up to 8 ft offshore of
Baja California Norte in reinforcing NW swell. The Gulf of 
California maintains 3 ft seas or less with the highest near the 
entrance. Showers continue to stream across Baja California and
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force northerly winds will
continue through tonight in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will 
become fresh to strong N from Fri through Fri night and diminish 
to gentle by Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds will 
prevail through this morning. A new set of NW swell will continue
to move across the waters west of Baja California, up to 8 ft 
from Punta Eugenia northward through today. Fresh to strong NW-N
winds will develop west of Baja California by Fri night and 
persist through the weekend behind the dying cold front. NW swell
will come with this cold front, with seas building to 10 to 15 
ft west of Baja California by late Fri. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will 
build southward, off Baja California Sur on Sat. Fresh to strong 
SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California ahead of
the front Thu night through Fri night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas 
are reaching 7 ft in this region. Moderate N winds are in the 
Gulf of Panama with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mainly light to gentle 
winds are noted elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except
up to 6 ft offshore of Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to 
pulse each night across the Papagayo region through early Sat, 
then moderate to fresh thereafter. Winds in the Gulf of Panama 
will pulse moderate to fresh, mainly at night through Fri night. 
Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will build slightly 
offshore of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the end of 
the week due to a SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A cold front extends from 30N129W to 25N140W with fresh to 
strong N to NE winds behind the front. A set of NW swell 
associated with this frontal system has propagated well southeast
of the parent front with seas of 6 to 10 ft north of 14N and 
west of 119W, with 6 to 7 ft elsewhere. Broad high pressure is 
located east of the front to near the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Gentle to moderate winds dominate the open waters ahead of the 
front.

For the forecast, The cold front will extend from 30N124W to 
23N140W later this morning, and from 30N116W to 22N124W by Fri 
morning. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are forecast to continue
behind the front, along with continuing NW swell. By Fri, low 
pressure west of the area may extend a warm front near 140W with 
fresh to strong easterly winds north of it in the northwest 
corner of our area, along with building seas in W swell. Farther 
east, fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are likely 
north of 28N between 120W and 128W Thu night and Fri behind the 
aforementioned cold front.

$$
Lewitsky


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