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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N:        Dems-rsmc Special Tropical Cyclones New Delhi Dated 03.03.2022 
Message-ID: <20220303091041.A9D6A1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 09:10:41 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 030900
          TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
       DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 03.03.2022
       SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
       BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0830 UTC OF
       03.03.2022 BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 03.03.2022.
       DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN
       OCEAN
                THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING
       EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS W ITH A SPEED
       OF ABOUT 18 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF
       TODAY, THE 3RD MARCH 2022, OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE
       6.1°N AND LONGITUDE 83.4°E, ABOUT 360 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
       TRINCOMALEE (43418), 700 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPPATTINAM (43347),
       760 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND ABOUT 840 KM SOUTH-
       SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI(43279).
              IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT
       24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG AND OFF EAST
       COAST OF SRI LANKA TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST DURING NEXT 48
       HOURS.
       FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
          DATE/TIME(UTC)              POSITION       MAXIMUM SUSTAINED         CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
                                       (LAT. 0N/             SURFACE            DISTURBANCE
                                      LONG. 0E)       WIND SPEED (KMPH)
            03.03.22/0600               6.1/83.4       45-55 gusting to 65     Depression
            03.03.22/1800               7.4/82.6       45-55 gusting to 65     Depression
            04.03.22/0600               8.8/81.8       50-60 gusting to 70     Deep Depression
            04.03.22/1800              10.2/81.8       50-60 gusting to 70     Deep Depression
            05.03.22/0600              11.6/80.4       50-60 gusting to 70     Deep Depression
       THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH
       EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BET LAT 6.0DEG N
       TO 14.0 DEGN LONG 80.0 DEG E TO 90.0E & SRILANKA. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
       TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 85 DEG C. CONVECTION IS MORE IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF
       THE SYSTEM.
       THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.
       THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL &
This is a guidance Bulletin for the WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries,. Please visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
HPA.
REMARKS:
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY
LIES IN PHASE 6 W ITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE
SAME PHASE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS THAN 1.
THE PHASE OF MJO IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION DURING
NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1 AND LIES AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. VERTICALLY IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS SAME DURING PAST 24 HOURS AND IS AROUND 10 X10-5 S-1 TO
THE NRTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 30
X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. W IND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO
HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE AND IS INCREASE TOWARDS
TAMILNADU COAST.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, ECMWF, GEFS, NCUM (G),
NCUM (R) AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE INDICATING SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS
W.R.T. MOVEMENT TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.
IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER
SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MARGINALLY DURING NEXT 24 HOURS
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE TOW ARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST.
 THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 3rd MARCH, 2022.


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