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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 12:29:35 +0000
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112 
AWIO20 FMEE 031228

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/03 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warnings WTIO20 021/07 and WTIO30 021/07 issued at 06UTC on Tropical Storm VERNON.

Next warnings at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow is present over most of the basin and feeds a monsoon trough (MT) with an undulating axis between 12 and 18S. Apart from the tropical storm VERNON, a second minimum is present between Mauritius and la Reunion today. The convective activity is particularly strong on the northern side of the TM in the convergence of the monsoon flow.

Severe Tropical Storm VERNON :

Position at 09UTC : 23.9oS / 81.2oE

Movement : South-South-West 14 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 50 kt

Estimated central pressure : 985 hPa
For more information on this system, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

North of the Mascarene Islands :

The disturbed area evoked yesterday is still present today between Reunion and Mauritius, located at 11Z around 20.0S/56.3E. The ASCAT pass of 1728z shows the presence of winds around 20kt in the southern semicircle of an elongated center. This afternoon, convective activity is weak near the center due to dry air and strong westerly shear . During the next few days, this minimum should have no potential for development and should merge into the low pressure area around Tromelin. Further north the MT is not yet very well defined with a weak trade wind on the south side limiting the surface convergence. Only a weak vortex of clouds is present northwest of Saint-Brandon.

Under the impulse of a marked wave activity on the equatorial side (MRG,...), the monsoon flow remains well meridian on the western part of the basin. Thanks to this and to the strengthening of the trade winds on the subtropical side from tomorrow, a low-pressure system should form on Saturday or Sunday east of Tromelin. The models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario but diverge significantly after the beginning of next week. Even if the latest forecasts tend to be closer, the American deterministic model continues to propose a rapid deepening. The European models (IFS/EPS) propose a slower deepening northwest of Reunion Island due to a less efficient convergence on the surface and a weak northerly shear. The American ensemble (GEFS 06Z) now seems closer to the European models, making their scenario more credible. In the long-term, two opposite scenarios in terms of trajectory are suggested by the different models (one westward and one eastward), in relation to the 
 upper tr
 ough to the south. It is difficult to decide between these scenarios at this time.

The situation therefore remains very uncertain both on the speed of development and the potential track of this system. Although it is still too early to properly assess the degree of threat for the inhabited lands, a deterioration of the weather seems likely by the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week over the Mascarenes.  It is therefore recommended to stay updated on the next forecasts.

There is a low risk of formation of a new tropical storm from Sunday north of the Mascarene Islands. It becomes moderate on Tuesday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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