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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220303130135.7B1FF1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 13:01:35 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 031216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/7/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 81.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 555 SW: 405 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SW: 305 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 175

24H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SW: 325 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 175

36H: 2022/03/05 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 425 SW: 345 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 165

48H: 2022/03/05 12 UTC: 31.7 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SW: 350 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/06 00 UTC: 33.0 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 425 SW: 305 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 165

72H: 2022/03/06 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 390 SW: 325 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 165

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/07 12 UTC: 36.6 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0920Z GMI
PASS HAVE SHOWN DECREASING CONVECTION AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE
CENTER OF VERNON, WHILE THE CIRRUS PLUME TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
HAS EXPANDED A BIT. THESE OBSERVATIONS POSSIBLY ILLUSTRATE THE FIRST
SIGNS OF AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (SST BECOMING LESS WARM AND
INCREASING EFFECTS OF WIND SHEAR). NEVERTHELESS, THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN
A NICE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND AN EYE STRUCTURE IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. DUE TO INERTIA, AND IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER OBJECTIVE DATA,
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LEFT AT 50 KT, BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY.

VERNON CONTINUES ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, GUIDED ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS GRADUALLY
SLIDING EASTWARD AND WILL SOON INTERCEPT VERNON. THE TRACK WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
LEADING VERNON TO REACH EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES BY THE WEEK-END,
WHILE REMAINING FAR FROM INHABITED LANDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM
MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR,
OFFSETTING GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ON
THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. MOREOVER, OCEANIC POTENTIAL
SHOULD FRANKLY DECREASE FROM THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SYSTEM OVER COLDER WATERS. THIS SHOULD MAKE VERNON RAPIDLY
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BEFORE TOMORROW, BUT THE INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN GOOD INTENSITY UNTIL SATURDAY BY
BAROCLINIC MECHANISMS. LATER ON, VERNON SHOULD WEAKEN MORE FRANKLY AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BY REACHING THE MID-LATITUDES.=

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