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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-N: 
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Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 15:42:09 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 031530
 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 03.03.2022

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC
OF 03.03.2022 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 03.03.2022.

DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING EQUATORIAL
INDIAN OCEAN
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 19 KMPH DURING LAST 06
HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200UTC OF TODAY, THE 3RD MARCH 2022, OVER
THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 7.1ON AND LONGITUDE 83.2OE, ABOUT 270
KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 610 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
NAGAPPATTINAM (43347), 650 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY (43331)
AND ABOUT 730 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI(43279).
IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG AND OFF EAST
COAST OF SRI LANKA  TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST DURING NEXT 48
HOURS.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:


FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
  DATE/TIME(UTC  POSITION   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED      CATEGORY OF
CYCLONIC
                  (LAT. 0N/
         )                         SURFACE             DISTURBANCE
                 LONG. 0E)   WIND SPEED (KMPH)
   03.03.22/1200   7.1/83.2  45-55 GUSTING TO 65        DEPRESSION
   04.03.22/0000   8.6/82.5  50-60 GUSTING TO 70     DEEP DEPRESSION
   04.03.22/1200   9.9/81.9  50-60 GUSTING TO 70     DEEP DEPRESSION
   05.03.22/0000  11.2/81.3  45-55 GUSTING TO 65        DEPRESSION
   05.03.22/1200  12.0/81.0  40-50 GUSTING TO 60        DEPRESSION


THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5.  ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER
AREA BET LAT 6.0DEG N & 14.0 DEG N AND LONG 80.0 DEG E TO 90.0E &
SRILANKA. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 90 DEG C. CONVECTION
IS MORE IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO
35 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN. THE ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA.

REMARKS:

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY
 LIES IN PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
 IN THE SAME PHASE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING
LESS THAN 1. THE PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION
DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 100 X10-6 S-1 AND LIES AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SAME DURING PAST 24 HOURS AND IS AROUND
10 X10-5 S-1  TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE HAS INCREASED AND IS AROUND 40 X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST
 OF SYSTEM CENTRE.  WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS)
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND WOULD INCREASE TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST.


MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, ECMWF, GEFS, NCUM
(G), IMDMME, NCUM (R) AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE INDICATING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS W.R.T. MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU
COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER
SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MARGINALLY DURING NEXT 24
HOURS INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS OFF EAST COAST
OF SRILANKA TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST.


 THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 3RD MARCH, 2022.=

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