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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220303160335.51F541C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 16:03:35 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 031603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia 
near 08N77W to 05N85W to 05N93W to 02N100W to 02N19W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the 
ITCZ and continues to 04N120W to 07N128W to 07N135W and to beyond
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from the equator 
to 06N between 79W-84W, and within 60 nm north of the trough 
between 92W-98W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong to near gale-force north to northeast winds are presently
ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas likely in the 6-8 
ft range. High pressure ridging continues to extend across the 
rest of the area with gentle winds. Seas in the range of 5-7 ft 
in a northwest swell are over the Baja California offshores and 
SW Mexico, except for higher wave heights of up to 8 ft offshore 
of Baja California Norte due to a reinforcing northwest swell. 
Wave heights of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California, 
except for higher wave heights of 4-6 ft in the entrance to the 
Gulf.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force northerly winds will
continue through tonight in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will 
become fresh to strong N from Fri through Fri night and diminish 
to gentle by Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds will 
prevail through this morning. A new set of northwest swell will 
continue to move across the waters west of Baja California, up to
8 ft from Punta Eugenia northward through today. Fresh to strong
northwest to north winds will develop west of Baja California by
Fri night and persist through the weekend behind the dying cold 
front. This front will usher in northwest swell, with wave
heights building to 10-14 ft west of Baja California by late 
Fri. Wave heights of 8-10 ft will build southward, off Baja 
California Sur on Sat. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds 
are expected in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the 
front tonight through early Thu, then diminish to fresh speeds 
Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo,
with wave heights of up to 7 ft. Moderate north winds are in the
Gulf of Panama, with wave heights of 3-5 ft. Mainly light to 
gentle winds are noted elsewhere, along with wave heights of 3-5 
ft due to a south to southwest swell, with the exception of wave 
heights of up to 6 ft offshore of Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to 
pulse each night across the Papagayo region through early Sat, 
then moderate to fresh thereafter. Winds in the Gulf of Panama 
will pulse moderate to fresh, mainly at night through Fri night. 
Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will build slightly 
offshore of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the end of 
the week due to a SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A cold front is analyzed along a position from near 30N126W to 
26N132W and to beyond 25N140W. Fresh to strong northwest to north
winds are behind the front. These winds extend westward to 130W,
then become northeast to east fresh to strong winds west of 130W. 
Wave heights with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. A set of
northwest swell associated with this frontal system has 
propagated well southeast of the parent front producing 
wave heights of 6-8 ft north of 14N west of about 129W. 
Wave heights of 5-7 ft are elsewhere over the area. Broad high 
pressure is located east of the front to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the open waters ahead 
of the front.

For the forecast, The cold front will reach from near 30N122W to
24N135W by early this evening, and from near 30N118W to 22N130W
by early Fri. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are 
forecast to continue behind the front, along with the northwest 
swell and wave heights of 8-12 ft except for higher wave heights 
of 11-14 ft north of 28N. A warm front associated with low
pressure west of the area is forecast to extend into the area
along a position from 26N140W to near 25N136W by late tonight. 
Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are forecast from 25N to 
26N west of 137W along with wave heights of 8-10 ft. 

$$
Aguirre


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