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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220303173928.90ECC1C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 17:39:28 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/031800Z-041800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021951ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZMAR2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 418 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A
031028Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT WEAK BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). IN ADDITION, DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO
INCLUDE FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36-48HRS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02MAR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTHEAST OF
JAKARTA, INDONESIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS33 PGTW
022100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 03MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 24.7S 81.4E, APPROXIMATELY 1173 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 031500) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN


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